The evidence points to a continuous process of repairs and rebuilding from AD 63 onwards. It used to be assumed that the earthquake described by Seneca was the only cause of damage, and that signs of incomplete work suggested that it took the cities a long time to recover from the first catastrophe. But we now know from volcanological research that a series of seismic episodes immediately preceded the eruption, causing further damage to structures that had already been repaired. They also know that the activity of Vesuvius is recurrent, and that the longer the intervals between one eruption and another, the greater the eventual explosion will be. The frequent but low-level activity of Vesuvius in recent centuries has relieved the build-up of pressure in the magma chamber. The catastrophic magnitude of the eruption of AD 79 was connected with the extended period of inactivity that preceded it. A long interval combined with mounting seismic activity is a sure sign of impending disaster. Through measuring seismic activity, these scientists expect to predict an approaching eruption months in advance. Pliny’s casual reference to earth tremors ‘which were not particularly alarming because they are frequent in Campania’ reveals the Roman’s comprehensive ignorance of the link between seismic activity and volcanic activity.
The effect of the eruption was evidently totally traumatic, as is shown by the failure to reoccupy the sites of the cities destroyed. It was normal practice to rebuild the cities of this region after even the most massive earthquakes; but neither Herculaneum nor Pompeii was reoccupied. The eruption lasted for more than 24 hours from its start on the morning of 24 August. Those who fled at once, unburdened by possessions, had a chance of survival, for the rain of ash and pumice, mixed with lithics, that descended for several hours was not necessarily lethal. It is clear that many, like the elder Pliny, thought their best chance was to take shelter and weather the storm. The young Pliny too stays calm, but his mother weeps and implores, and by the time they set out to flee northwards, a dense black cloud of ash has blotted out the light, and the crowds of screaming people fleeing around them are in terror.
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